Questioning RIAA Math

I think Cuban is right that the Music Industry is losing share, but wrong about who to. The answer seems to be substitution of other entertainment goods such as DVDs, video games, etc. The link has the data to back it up:

http://www.freedom-to-tinker.com/archives/000691.html

The fact that you're always up on these things, I just had to give you my respect.

Both you and Mitch Bainwol make the exact same logical error, which I believe is classicly described as "Post hoc, ergo propter hoc," which means: B followed A, therefore B was caused by A. This is a logical fallacy. It's like saying "I arrived at the bus stop, and five minutes later a bus came along. Obviously, my presence draws buses to bus stops."

It's wrong when Mitch says it: just because sales declined after the advent of file sharing, one cannot conclude file sharing was the cause. It may be that other things that happened around the time of file sharing caused the decline.

Trouble is, all your argument does it take the same logical error and turn it around. Your argument is more convincing because you use several examples, but it doesn't come close to proving a logical connection. (Hey, it's not just bus stops. I went to a subway station--a train came along. And I went to an airport, then a plane landed.)

There was a pretty rigorous empirical study out of some university business school that sought to test the hypothesis that downloading had a negative effect on music sales. (And the contrary hypothesis that it had a positive effect, because people who downloaded music by particular artists might be motivated to buy their product.)

The results were that downloading had a negligible effect, either positive or negative. I'll try to find the link, because it was really a solid argument, with strict methodology and an impressive sample size.

Here's the url for the empircal study
http://www.unc.edu/~cigar/papers/FileSharing_March2004.pdf

BINGO! Tenlay is right. I myself listen to less music, and buy more video games, dvd's, etc.

watsup asmile: just to be clear, the indented portion is Mark Cuban speaking, not me. :)

Finally someone spreading around the fucking truth.

I agree with asmile in the respect, that is a total logical fallacy. But i suspect the RIAA used this method to determine lost sales ... if 1 million people download a particular song, you can safely assume a small portion would have bought the actual album. Now lets say that percentage is 1% thats 10,000. If you take this logical assumption into account and apply it to the "reported" number of downloads it appears to everyone that they are more than correct.

But... how many of those downloads are taking from US sales which is the factor the RIAA NEVER talks about. Anyone who is not located in NYC or LA and even some of those folks will tell you, just because an album is released doesnt mean your local store will even carry it. Heck, they only make and distribute so many copies of any album. The problem I feel is the lack of technological insight by the collective RIAA members, and that lack of insight was exploited worldwide in a manner that they could never have handle themselves. I spoke to a friend in Trinidad the other day that told me something I already knew, the digital music revolution has made getting music so much easier and less expensive.

I myself figure it like this over the years I have been forced to purchase content I didn't ask for and didn't want with the hopes that prices would eventually reflect the advances that were made. Now, I think they do though not because the industry ushered it in.

I agree with your argument and all. But the increase in DVDs can also be contributed to the lowering of prices for DVD players and there popularity has deffiantly gone up. But you down load mad movies thats been ripped off DVDs too. So its all the same i guess

I still purchase albums because for me, theres nothing quite like that feeling of unwrapping it, reading the liner notes, artist notes and production credits and kicking back for the first listen -

I know that for hip hop, I'm willing to bet that the spread of "mixtapes" has decreased sales somewhat, because why buy an album when you can cop all the hot shit and exclusives on the latest DJ mixtape?

At independant records in denver, where I shop the mixtape CDs are listed right along side artist albums in the r&b/hip hop section...

As far as having said ability to substantiate the off soundscan numbers with another means to court our true sales outside RIAA, that's a no-no. You're talking to one of the cats that single-handily created the headache for digital downloads and brick-n-mortar sales of mix CD's. I would bet in this chance meeting that Mitch isn't even thinking about sales outside the fence called RIAA...is team spends too many $ trying to find the people responsible for "pirate sales" or the infamous bootlegging charters. I am not either, simply someone that saw an open playing field when it was about getting product to the marketplace. So in an effort to identify whether or not the this off sides charting exsist I would say that you need to speak to about 10 retail researchers that also really talk to mom & pops and then divide this number by sales to average a growth from last year's to now. You will see that isn't very hard.
-We hide but not too far!
Sales have been up and since the control of the power has flipped, I now sell DVD's with the biggest company in the game Universal Music and Video Distribution. However I still gets my hustle on.
Shouts to DJ Rectangle (We juiced these fuckers, Dirty Harry, Green, even Flex, Who Kid-blew a lil, and clue lied about his numbers but the nigga sold a shitload. Yeah they made mad bank when it was hot. Now mix CD's are simply a promo, but don't get it twisted you can still make a decent living if you work hard at it, i.e. Warrior and Czek. Nuff said.

What's up Jay, this is the first time I've ever read your articles/webpage. Pretty good stuff for the first time, espically the file sharing article. I'm doing a Harvard Case Study on the music industry and illegal downloads and the effect on sales, etc. If you do find anymore information supporting your feelings let me know, because I would love to be able to write my paper on how illegal file sharing is not hurting the music industry. Thanks

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